A Review of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Consensus: An Econometric Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model of Paleoclimate Series

Abstract

This paper projects a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compares it to the prevailing consensus using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process Model (ARIMA). The parameter estimates of the model were below that established by the anthropogenic experts and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN) over a 100-year scenario. Results from the ARIMA model suggest a current period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. The results from this study add a statistical element of paleoclimate to the debate that contradicts the current scientific consensus.